TipResumen

TOULOUSE

Toulouse were thumped by Marseille (4-0) to kick off their season. Having finished in 18th Alain Casanova’s side have a form line of 1-0-4 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 1/5 which is dreadful. Going forward Toulouse have finished with over 1.50 xG in 1/5 which is very poor. At the back during this period they have conceded on average 2.25 xG which is relegation form. At home it's 2-1-2 in the last 5 Ligue 1 games winning the xG supremacy in 3/5. Le Téfécéhave finished with over 1.50 xG for in 3/5 which is very good. Defensively, they have averaged 1.20 xG against which is good.



BORDEAUX

Bordeaux lost to Strasbourg (0-2) in a poor display after losing a man to a red card inside 12 minutes. Having finished 6th last time around the fans will want a push for the top 4, however after a tough start the pressure is on to bounce back this time around. Gus Poyet’s side have a form line of 4-0-1 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 4/5 which is excellent. Les Girondins going forward finished with over 1.50 xG for in 4/5 which is superb. At the back during this period they conceded on average 1.18 xG which is strong. Away from home it's 3-0-2 in the last 5 Ligue 1 games winning the xG supremacy in 3/5. Bordeaux have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 4/5 which is exceptional. Defensively, they have averaged 1.64 xG against which is quite high even when playing away from home.



BETTING VERDICT

I will take Bordeaux +0 AH. Bordeaux ended the season well but started this poorly. The red card obviously ruined their game plan and I expect them to respond on Sunday afternoon. The hosts were thrashed by Marseille and offered very little with an expected goals total of just 0.23. The hosts are stronger on their own turf but Bordeaux equally are impressive on their travels. With 4/5 away games ending in over 1.50 xG for Bordeaux it’s hard to see them not scoring at least once. Defensively, they can be suspect and it would be a shock if Toulouse didn’t net themselves. However, to get odds against on a top 6 team draw no bet at a relegation candidate off a back of a 4-0 loss just seems too generous and I like Bordeaux to at least avoid defeat.



Good Luck