TipResumen

REIMS

Reims defeated Nice (0-1) last weekend in one of the shock results of the opening round of fixtures. The newly promoted side weren’t fancied at Nice and they won’t be fancied on Friday against Lyon, but can lighting strike twice? David Guion’s side won Ligue 2 last season by a commanding 15 points netting 74 goals in the process. Their defence was the strongest in the league conceding just 24 and that defence was called upon in their win last week. Reims netted in the 1st minute last weekend and held on. They conceded 19 shots but only gave up 1.03 expected goals as just 1/19 was on target. At the other end, Reims had 5 efforts on goal with 3 hitting the target. The worry is that their expected goals was a miserly 0.27 and it’s very rare for a team to a win a game with such little supremacy.



LYON

Lyon won comfortably last weekend in their home opener seeing off Amiens (2-0). All of the other top sides were victorious so the pressure is on once again to get the win this time around. Despite Reims’ shock win last weekend, the visitors will be expecting to pick up the points on Friday night. Bruno Génésio’s side have a form line of 4-0-1 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 5/5 which is sensational. Les Gones going forward finished with over 1.50 xG for in 2/5 which is ok. At the back during this period they conceded on average 0.65 xG which is sensational. Away from home it's 3-1-1 in the last 5 Ligue 1 games winning the xG supremacy in 4/5. Lyon have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 2/5 which is good. Defensively, they have averaged 0.89 xG against which is strong when playing away from home.



BETTING VERDICT

I will take Lyon -0.75 AH. Lyon won’t find it easy at Reims but I expect them to get the win.I feel the result of the hosts in game week 1 has left the asian line a 1/4 ball short. If Reims lost last weekend I fully expected a -1 line in favour of Lyon so to get -3/4 is a line that I want to take advantage of. Reims will be full of confidence but their expected goals of just 0.27 just won’t work against Lyon. Lyon are conceding under a goal a game on their travels and having started with a clean sheet will be very hard to breach. At the other end, Reims were out shot with the best chances falling to Nice. Lyon’s excellent striker force won’t be so wasteful and I see a 0-2 scoreline on Friday night.



Good Luck