TipResumen

PSG PSG

retained the Ligue 1 title last season finishing 13 points ahead of Monaco in 2nd. Emery has left the club and ex-Dortmund Tuchel takes the hot seat in Paris. The Ligue 1 title is the minimum that fans expect and PSG start against Caen on Sunday night. Thomas Tuchel's side finished last season with a form line of 1-3-1 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 2/5 which is poor. Going forward PSG have finished with over 1.50 xG in 2/5 which is average. At the back during this period they have conceded on average 1.08 xG which is high for PSG but it's clear that they eased off the gas with the domestic title won in April. At home it's 3-1-1 in the last 5 Ligue 1 games winning the xG supremacy in 2/5. Les Parisiens have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 4/5 which is superb. Defensively, they have averaged 1.03 xG against which is not great.



CAEN

Caen finished in 16th position last season narrowingly avoiding the relegation playoff by just a single point. Their goal is to maintain their status in Ligue 1 this season but they are given the toughest fixture of all to start the season. Fabien Mercadal's side finished last season with a form line of 0-2-3 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 0/5 which is awful. SMC going forward finished with over 1.50 xG for in 0/5 which is dreadful. At the back during this period they have conceded on average 1.31 xG which is ok for a side near the bottom of the table. Away from home it's 0-1-4 in the last 5 Ligue 1 games losing the last 2 and winning the xG supremacy in 0/5. Caen have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 0/5 which is dreadful. Defensively, they have averaged 1.53 xG against which is really poor as they clearly struggle on their travels.



BETTING VERDICT

I will take under 3.75 goals. PSG should win this game but following a World Cup it wouldn't be a shock if this isn't as high scoring as many expect. PSG have plenty of goals in them and Caen's away record towards the end of the season was particularly poor. The visitors are giving up 2 goal's worth of chances on average and don't carry a huge goal threat. As a result, I see PSG winning this 2/3-0. The win to nil appeals for the hosts but I will stick with the under. Caen held PSG 0-0 at home on the final day of the season so they can take comfort from that. I expect them to lose but hopefully not by 4 or more! Good Luck