TipResumen

PSG

PSG continue to do what they do best in Ligue 1 and that’s win football matches. The champions defeated a spirited Guingamp side 1-3 at the weekend, a result which leaves them top of the table going into this weekend’s games. Thomas Tuchel’s side have a form line of 2-2-1 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 4/5 which is very strong. Les Parisiens going forward finished with over 1.50 xG for in 3/5 which is very good. At the back during this period they conceded on average 0.73 xG which is outstanding. At home it's 3-1-1 in the last 5 Ligue 1 games winning the xG supremacy in 3/5. PSG have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 4/5 which is excellent. Defensively, they have averaged 1.45 xG against which is poor for a side as strong as PSG.



ANGERS

Angers have made an awful start to the season losing both games and remain pointless. In their 4th consecutive season in Ligue 1 now, Sunday’s visitors are long shots to avoid ending the month pointless. Stéphane Moulin’s side have a form line of 1-0-4 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 3/5 which shows they were unlucky to lose 4/5. Les Scoïstes going forward finished with over 1.50 xG for in 3/5 which is very good. At the back during this period they conceded on average 0.91 xG which is decent. Away from home it's 1-0-4 in the last 5 Ligue 1 games winning the xG supremacy in 3/5. Angers have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 3/5 which is excellent. Defensively, they have averaged 1.44 xG against which is in need of improvement but not horrendous.



BETTING VERDICT

I will take Angers +2.75 AH. PSG should win this game but the handicap looks very high on the visitors. Angers despite their poor start to the season shared the xG with Rennes last time out (0.39 v 0.35) and won the supremacy in their loss to Nimes (2.62 v 1.21). In fact Angers create plenty of good chances winning the supremacy in 3/5 both away and overall. Obviously PSG are strong but their home xG supremacy is just 3/5 and they have averaged 1.45 xG on their own turf. Angers are creating excellent chances and I like them to net at least once on Saturday which should be enough for the cover. PSG have averaged over 1.50 Xg in 4/5 at home which is excellent but Angers are giving up just 1.44 xG against on their travels in the last 5. Only once in this period has this number gone above 2 so this looks a 2-1/3-1 kind of game to me. Given the numbers I will take the visitors with a big head start.

Good Luck