TipResumen

OVERVIEW

Port Adelaide are currently 7th on the ladder, winning 2 of their last 5 games. The 2 wins came against St Kilda and Western Bulldogs while the losses were against Fremantle, Giants and Crows. West Coast Eagles are 2nd on the ladder, winning 4 of their last 5 games. The only defeat in that period came away against North Melbourne while the wins were against GWS, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and Fremantle. Port Adelaide inconsistency continues after yet another Jekyll and Hyde performance against the Crows. Port started off slow and got back into the game but failed to control the final minutes of the game which eventually cost them the game. As for the West Coast Eagles, following 3 back to back losses after the BYE, the Eagles have somehow managed to stead the ship and pick up 4 wins from the possible 5. While form is on their side, they do have some tricky games remaining with Melbourne coming up to Perth next week and their final round away at the Gabba to a young and talented side who will want to close the season off in style. Comparing a few key statistical battles between both sides, Port Adelaide do have the edge in these key areas. Port Adelaide are one of the best defensive sides in the competition allowing only an average of 71 points per game. While Eagles are still a high scoring team without Kennedy, the importance of Kennedy cannot be undermined as his leads tends to drag defenders away from their spots. Port are also the number 1 tackling team in the competition which indicates the likelihood of them applying pressure and contesting every ball which inverted is the exact opposite of the Eagles who are 16th in the competition in tackles. This will be an extremely difficult task for West Coast side without arguable three of their best and most influential players in Naitanui, Kennedy and Gaff. Given the likelihood of a fierce battle in the middle of the field, the absence of Naitanui and Gaff will make life really hard for West Coast. Paddy Ryder is likely to win the majority of the Hit-outs against either Scott Lycett or Nathan Vardy while onballers Polec, Motlop, Wines Wingard and Gray are likely to get first use of the ball given Ryder’s presences. Once again I am unsure of which Charlie Dixon that turns up for the game, the one that kick 5 against Western Bulldogs or the one that had ZERO goals against Adelaide Crows. While I am not a big fan of Dixon, I believe his presences should at least drag or put McGovern out of position.



VERDICT

As inconsistent as other sides can be, we could roughly gaged where they should be. As for the West Coast, they good as they seem to be, I believe they have overachieved. At the start of the season I was expecting the Eagles to just make the top 8 and definitely not top 4. Adam Simpson’s side deserve credit as they have been inside the top 4 for majority of the season but as we are approaching September, I believe some results will bring the Eagles back down to earth. I cannot see the West Coast Eagles winning games they way they did earlier part of the season. Finals and high stakes games such as this match between Port will come down to hard contested ball, tackles and handball movement. They space they players were getting tend to shrink in such high-pressured games as I am expecting Port Adelaide to take full opportunity of it. I still back what I’ve said last week on Port being inconsistent but it’s about time Ken Hinkley side stood up, especially at home. Port will play 2 of the next 3 games at home and I believe for them to progress deep into September, they need to hold home advantage. If Port plays away it will be tough for them but if they can a game or two at home in finals, they may have a chance in going past week 2 of finals. Given key match ups and home advantage, I cannot shy away from Port Adelaide winning comfortably. I cannot see Scott Lycett coming even close against Paddy Ryder and anybody besides Elliot Yeo matching Port in the middle. Polec, Wines, Motlop, Wingard and Gray will dominate the middle. Don’t hold your breath but might be worth a small punt on Port Adelaide winning by 40++ on the margin as it is paying a health $4.25. Many are tipping this to be a close game but given the Gaff saga that was on for the week and poor weather in Perth once again for the entire week, Port Adelaide to cover the handicap.