TipResumen

NIMES

Nimes won a shootout at Angers (3-4) last weekend despite creating the best chances of the game. The recently promoted side will be buoyed by the result and will go into this game with Marseille with nothing to lose. Bernard Blaquart’s side finished 2nd in Ligue 2 last season, 5 points safely above 3rd placed Ajaccio. Nimes are one of the favourites to go down this season but they won’t be easy to beat. Having scored a league high 75 goals last time around it was no shock to see them netting a few on opening day. Les crocodiles scored in the 3rd minute but fell 3-1 behind only to stage an incredible comeback. At 3-2 down they were reduced to 10 men but still went on to win. This is a resilient team but they were a touch fortunate to win having been outshot in the expected goals by 2.62 – 1.21.



MARSEILLE

Marseille defeated Toulouse (4-0) easily to start their season with a victory. Last season’s 4th placed finishers have made a pleasing start but on Sunday they face another team who scored 4 times last weekend In Nimes. Rudi Garcia’s side have a form line of 3-2-0 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 4/5 which is excellent. Les Phocéens going forward finished with over 1.50 xG for in 5/5 which is incredible. At the back during this period they conceded on average 1.06 xG which is excellent. Away from home it's 3-2-0 in the last 5 Ligue 1 games winning the xG supremacy in 3/5. Marseille have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 4/5 which is outstanding. Defensively, they have averaged 1.54 xG against which is a little bit high for a team competing for a top 3 place.



BETTING VERDICT

I will take Over 3.00 goals Marseille may not have things easy on Sunday night. There opponents are coming off an incredible comeback win and have plenty of goals in them. Marseille’s defence is not great and despite last weekend’s clean sheet conceding 1.54 xG on their travels is a big concern. At the other end Nimes are unlikely to keep Marseille out. They have finished with over 1.50 xG in 4/5 away from home which is very hard to do. The hosts conceded 3 times last week against much weaker opposition and I see the visitors netting a few here. With this being Nimes’ home opener plus their ability to score goals, I will side with the goals market to cover any shock large scoring draws or the home win. Which if it lands won’t be to nil.



Good Luck