TipResumen

NAPOLI

Napoli won at Lazio (1-2) to kick off their season. Many expected them to struggle this season given the departures to key players and their manager. However, a come back from behind win is a statement and hopefully for their sake they can make it 2/2 against Milan on Saturday. Carlo Ancelotti’s side enter this game with a form line of 3-1-1 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 4/5 which is excellent. Going forward Napoli have finished with over 1.50 xG in 3/5 which is strong. At the back during this period they have conceded on average 0.91 xG which is strong. At home it's 4-1-0 in the last 5 Serie A games winning the xG supremacy in 4/5. Gli Azzurri have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 5/5 which is sensational. Defensively, they have averaged 0.81 xG against which is superb.



AC MILAN

Milan did not play at the weekend. Their fixture was postponed due to the tragic events in Genoa earlier in the week. Having finished 6th last season and 8 points behind the top 4 it’s going to be a big ask to make up that large gap this time around. Gennaro Gattuso’s side enter this game with a form line of 3-1-1 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 4/5 which is superb. Going forward Milan have finished with over 1.50 xG in 1/5 which is in need of improvement At the back during this period they have conceded on average 0.78 xG which is excellent. Away from home it's 2-2-1 in the last 5 Serie A games winning the xG supremacy in 2/5. I Rossoneri have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 1/5 which is dreadful. Defensively, they have averaged 1.10 xG against which is very good.



BETTING VERDICT

I will take Napoli -1 AH. I like Napoli to make it 2 wins from 2 on Saturday evening when they face off against an average looking Milan side. Napoli still have plenty of fire power going forward and ended the game at Lazio with over 1.50 xG. Now at the San Paolo I expect them to continue to create chances as they did last season finishing with over 1.5 xG in 5/5. Milan tend to keep things tight on their travels giving up just 1.10 xG. Their lack of supremacy tells us they are more likely to lose against strong sides like Napoli and I think if they fall behind the hosts will pull away from them.

Good Luck