TipResumen

MONACO

Monaco won impressively at Nantes (1-3) last weekend despite a lot of money coming in on their opponents prior to kick off. The Ligue 1 winners from 2 years ago continue to defy the odds by selling their best players but remain extremely tough to defeat. Leonardo Jardim’s side have a form line of 4-1-0 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 4/5 which is excellent. Going forward Monaco have finished with over 1.50 xG in 3/5 which is strong. At the back during this period they have conceded on average 0.87 xG which is excellent. At home it's 4-1-0 in the last 5 Ligue 1 games winning the xG supremacy in 4/5. Les Monégasques have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 3/5 which is very good. Defensively, they have averaged 0.63 xG against which is sensational.



LILLE

Lille defeated Rennes (3-1) in comfortable fashion to start their season with a victory. The 2010-11 Ligue 1 winners will be happy with their start but know it’s going to take some performance to leave Monaco with anything. Christophe Galtier’s side have a form line of 4-0-1 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 4/5 which is excellent. Les Dogues going forward finished with over 1.50 xG for in 4/5 which is superb. At the back during this period they conceded on average 1.11 xG which is strong. Away from home it's 1-0-4 in the last 5 Ligue 1 games winning the xG supremacy in 1/5. Lille have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 1/5 which is very poor. Defensively, they have averaged 2.07 xG against which is awful, even when on the road.



BETTING VERDICT

I will take Over 2.75 goals Lille have some talent and on their day can match a lot of sides in the league. Unfortunately, for them their away form is dreadful losing 4/5 and giving up over 2 goals a game based on quality of chances. The hosts scored 3 times last weekend and at home average around 2 goals per game in xG. It’s hard not to see at least 2 for Monaco given the numbers. At the other end Monaco have a strong defence but I expect Lille to net at least once on Saturday evening. The visitors overall have averaged over 1.50 xG in 4/5 it’s just their away form that needs to improve. They also netted 3 last week and I think just 1 Lille goal will see us land the overs for sure. Given their display last weekend I will take that chance.



Good Luck