TipResumen

OVERVIEW

Melbourne are currently 7th on the ladder winning 3 of their last 5 games. The wins came against Adelaide Crows, Gold Coast Suns and West Coast while the losses were against Geelong and Sydney Swans. GWS on the other hand are 6th on the ladder, winning 4 of their last 5 games. The win came against Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Carlton and Adelaide Crows while the only loss came last week against Sydney Swans. Statistically Melbourne are ahead in all key areas that matter in this vital game. Melbourne are the number 1 team in hit outs and marks inside 50. The Demons are the highest scoring team in the competition, averaging over 15 goals a game and 2nd in goal accuracy. Melbourne fire power in front of goal should trouble GWS. Leon Cameron's side are a good defensive side but that defensive rating falls when they are away from Spotless and Canberra. The Demons dominated possession, clearances and contested possesses in their last game and given their superiority in Max Gawn at the ruck, they are likely to dominate these key areas as well. I cannot see Rory Lobb going anywhere near in challenging Gawn and Big Max Gawn is likely to have the edge at the ruck. Given the hit-out advantages, Melbourne lead by Nathan Jones in the middle should break open GWS quite easily at a much bigger pitch in MCG. As covered last week, Melbourne have one of the best young midfield combinations in the league. Brayshaw, Oliver and Alex Neal Bullen have an extremely bright future ahead of them and marshalled by veterans in Nathan Jones and Jordan Lewis, Melbourne in my view is the real deal in the coming few years if they could keep the core of the team.



VERDICT

Let’s be clear before I go further, Melbourne is finals bound. I read some ridiculous post by a popular writer saying the job is not done for Melbourne and a string of results going against Melbourne could see the Demons roll outside the top 8. Let me get this right for you – for Melbourne to roll out the top 8 it would need Melbourne to lose and Port Adelaide to win by approximately a combine 300 points. Now tell me if you see that happening? Josh Kelly, Dylan Shiel Callan Ward and Lachie Whifeild are no pushovers in the middle but given that the MCG are a bigger pitch, GWS may find it harder to lock the ball in the wings. Melbourne are capable in playing some fast and dangerous football and if GWS cannot keep them shut and it becomes a high scoring game, it will be hard for GWS match their scoring. GWS are missing key players through injuries and Jeremy Cameron for whatever reason seems to be far from his regular self. GWS will find it hard to score as their only regular multiple goal scores in the side are Toby Greene and Jeremy Cameron. With Greene still out injured and uncertain when he will return and Cameron cannot improve on his form, I think GWS will find it hard to go past week 2 of the finals, possible even week 1, depending on who they face. The odds for Melbourne to win the flag is currently $13 and a win today will see them finish 5th and have a home game in first week of the finals. At the current price of $13, Melbourne is offering fantastic value despite their “inexperience” in finals football. Winner of this game will most likely finish 5th and have home advantage and loser will end up on 7th spot. Therefore, there are plenty at stake in this game. Take Melbourne to win in an absolutely safe pick but I’d possible even go into Melbourne to cover then handicap as it is only just sitting at -14.5. If Melbourne can play the fast pace attacking football, I believe Melbourne can whip the Giants by a big margin.