TipResumen

MARSEILLE

Marseille kick off the new Ligue 1 season on Friday night when they host Toulouse. Marseille finished last season in 4th a point off the final Champions League place. They also made the final of the Europa League losing to Spanish side Atletico Madrid (3-0) in what can still be considered a strong season. Rudi Garcia's side finished last season with a form line of 3-2-0 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 4/5 which is strong. Les Phocéens have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 5/5 which is exceptional. At the back during this period they have conceded on average 1.36 xG which is good. At home it's 3-1-1 in the last 5 Ligue 1 games winning the last 3 and winning the xG supremacy in 5/5. Marseille have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 3/5 which is decent. Defensively, they have averaged 0.57 xG against which is incredible.



TOULOUSE

Toulouse finished the season in 18th place avoiding the drop via the relegation playoff. The 4-0 aggregate win over Ajaccio was comfortable enough but it's not a scenario that the supporters will want to go through again next May. Alain Casanova's side finished last season with a form line of 2-0-3 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 2/5 which is ok. Le Téfécé have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 2/5 which is average. At the back during this period they have conceded on average 1.71 xG which is dreadful. Away from home it's 0-2-3 in the last 5 Ligue 1 games losing the last 2 and winning the xG supremacy in 2/5. Toulouse have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 1/5 which is very poor. Defensively, they have averaged 1.68 xG against which is very high.



BETTING VERDICT

I will take Marseille -1.25 AH. Marseille have very strong attacking stats and look highly likely to net at least 2 or more. Defensively the visitors are poor especially away from home. Toulouse struggled with creativity at the back end last season and face a defence which is very strong. The hosts will be motivated to get 3 points down early before the rest of the league plays and once the first goes in I expect a second in a comfortable home win. Good Luck