TipResumen

LAZIO

Lazio finished last season in 5th place on 72 points just missing out on qualifying for the Champions League. The side from Rome also had a long run in the Europa League so there is plenty to be excited about as a Lazio fan this season. Simone Inzaghi’s side finished last season with a form line of 2-2-1 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 3/5 which is strong. Going forward Lazio have finished with over 1.50 xG in 4/5 which is excellent. At the back during this period they have conceded on average 1.32 xG which is decent. At home it's 2-2-1 in the last 5 Serie A games winning the xG supremacy in 2/5. I Biancocelesti have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 3/5 which is superb. Defensively, they have averaged 1.27 xG against which is good.



NAPOLI

Napoli pushed Juventus far last season claiming the highest ever points total in Serie A to not win the title. Sarri is gone and so has Jorginho but there is optimism with Ancelotti an excellent appointment who will look to at least keep last season’s runners up in the top 4 this time around. Carlo Ancelotti’s side finished last season with a form line of 3-1-1 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 4/5 which is sensational. Gli Azzurri going forward finished with over 1.50 xG for in 2/5 which is ok. At the back during this period they have conceded on average 0.74 xG which is sensational. Away from home it's 2-2-1 in the last 5 Serie A games winning the xG supremacy in 4/5. Napoli have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 1/5 which is poor. Defensively, they have averaged 1.12 xG against which is excellent particularly when playing away from home.



BETTING VERDICT

I will take Napoli +0 AH. I think Napoli will leave Rome with at least a point on Saturday evening. The visitors finished the season well but more impressively they dominated the expected goals supremacy overall and on their travels. The concern is how the new coach will take over this team but we mustn’t forget that Ancelotti is an exceptional manager. Lazio on the other hand are likely to give up enough chances for the visitors to net at least once and if they do it’s hard to see at least 2 goals for the hosts to see this bet lose. A draw appeals but I think Napoli just have something extra about them and what makes them slightly ahead of the likes of Lazio.



Good Luck