TipResumen

PREVIEW

This has the potential of being a very close First Round match when Matteo Berrettini and Denis Kudla meet at the US Open on Monday. These two players have already met twice on the hard courts in 2018 and both Berrettini and Kudla have won one match each with the Italian winning the most recent of those at the Indian Wells Masters tournament in March. The first match was won by Kudla in the Australian Open Qualifiers but they have been closely matched and the feeling is that there won't be a lot between them when they meet in the First Round. However I have to give the very slight edge to Kudla who should be more at home on the North American hard courts even though he did lose the match with Berrettini in Indian Wells. The Kudla numbers on the hard courts have been the slightly superior of the two and the gap is only increased when you take into consideration full ATP matches alone. Both players have had a solid run on the hard courts over the last month with Kudla reaching the Washington Quarter Final and Berrettini making the Winston Salem Third Round last week. However Berrettini is holding at less than 80% in main Tour matches on the hard courts and he has really struggled when it comes to the break of serve and those numbers have taken a significant drop off when compared to the Italian's overall hard court numbers. Kudla's numbers have not dropped at the same level when considering his main Tour matches on the hard courts alone. The American has held 85% of his service games in these matches on this surface and while he does not have the best returning stats, Kudla does have superior numbers to Berrettini which could make all the difference in a close First Round match. With that in mind it also feels wrong to see Kudla down as the underdog in this match and I will back him to win and move through to the Second Round.



PREDICTION

This looks another First Round match in which the underdog could show his bite.