TipResumen

OVERVIEW

Hawthorn are 5th on the ladder winning 4 of their last 5 games. The four wins were against Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Fremantle and Essendon while shockingly the only loss was against Brisbane Lions. Geelong on the other hand are 9th on the ladder, on the verge of missing finals football if results don’t go according to plan. The Cats have won 3 of their last 5 games and the win came against Swans, Melbourne and Lions while the losses were against Crows and Tigers. While I wasn’t really expecting the Hawks to win last week against Essendon, given the form Essendon were in, the Hawks did really well to hold off Essendon. That win shows that Clarkson’s side are ready for finals football this season. The Hawks may no longer be the side that won them 3 back to back championship but Clarkson’s side are still one of the best in moving the ball around. This is reflected clearly with the Hawks being the number 1 team in effective disposals in the competition and 3rd in uncontested possession and goal accuracy. Since the BYE Geelong in my opinion have been playing below their potential despite picking up some credible wins. They are far from their best and have constantly been giving opponents a sniff at their goal. Hawthorn’s killer instinct means that they do not require that many chances and when they are given the chances, they will punish opponents. Geelong have somehow lost some direction as the season went on. I am uncertain if Chris Scott knows what his best approach is. There were weeks when Tom Hawkins was taken off as it did not suit their game plan and they have been weeks when Hawkins were their only plan up front. Following back to back 7 goals from Tom Hawkins, he only managed 1 goal last week. Hawkins will be key for Geelong as they may struggle to find goals if Hawkins does not score. Besides Hawkins, Menzel and Dangerfield are the only other players to average more than 1 goal a game this season. Tom Michell have average almost 44 disposals in his last 4 games. The ball magnet looks all but certain to win the Brownlow this season. The Hawks are hard to stop when Mitchell has his print all over the ball. His dominance over the ball in my opinion is the key reason why the Hawks are the number 1 team in effective disposals. His ball movement and ability to disposal them off effectively allows allow other ball runners such as Shiels, Smith, Impey, O’Meara and Breust to run and play the ball to the open man. Chris Scott is likely to sent Scott Selwood to Mitchell, but I do not think that’s going to bother Mitchell as much as some expect. It may drop Mitchell disposals down to the mid 30’s but given the form Mitchell is in, I do not think that there is any play at this present time that could completely stop him.



VERDICT

After this game, The Hawks will take on St Kilda and Sydney on the road while Geelong will host Dockers and Suns at home. If the Cats losses this game, winning the remaining two games may not be sufficient for Geelong to finish inside the top 8. They will require results to go their way to finish inside the top 8. Therefore, the Cats must win all 3 remaining games to ensure finals football this season. As for the Hawks, two wins in the final weeks will all but guarantee the Hawks finals football and they could start by winning this massive blockbuster game at the MCG against Geelong. If they only win one of the remaining three games, percentage will come into play. With the Hawks having to travel to Sydney in the final round against Swans, experience will tell that Clarkson is well aware that it is extremely hard to secure a big win on the road in the final round where the season is at stake for both teams. This potentially could me a mini elimination final for both sides. Geelong needs to win to put destiny in their own hands while Hawks need to win to avoid having to travel to the SCG needing to secure a favorable result. This game could likely to go down as one of the absolutely classic games between Hawthorn Vs Geelong with winning goal potentially coming in the final minute of the game. In my opinion, Geelong have underperformed this season. To be 9th on the ladder after 20 rounds given the talent Geelong have at their disposal is unacceptable. There have been games the Cats look solid and strong but there have been some lackluster games where they look very ordinary. The game in my view can swing either way and logical option would be to back the Cats to win as they are favorites and surely they cannot lose another game at the MCG, but my gut feeling tells the Hawks may cause an upset here this weekend. James Frawley and Ben Stratton are in good form and if they can hold Tom Hawkins off like Alex Rance did last week, I believe the Hawks will win. Do not hold your breath as this could be a toss of a coin on who wins but I like the chance of Hawks at $2.30 and is likely to increase by Saturday morning