TipResumen

GUINGAMP

Guingamp lost at St Etienne (2-1) last weekend despite having the better of the chances. Last season’s 12th placed finish is roughly where they want to be having finished 10th the year before. However, any matchup against PSG is going to be a tough one when looking to climb the table. Antoine Kombouaré’s side have a form line of 0-2-3 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 3/5 which is strong. Going forward Guingamp have finished with over 1.50 xG in 2/5 which is average. At the back during this period they have conceded on average 1.82 xG which is alarming however this could be due to intensity falling away at the back end of last season. At home it's 3-1-1 in the last 5 Ligue 1 games winning the xG supremacy in 3/5. EAG have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 4/5 which is superb. Defensively, they have averaged 1.46 xG against which is poor.



PSG

PSG won comfortably last weekend in their home opener seeing off Caen (3-0). Their Saturday afternoon visit of Guingamp won’t be easy, even more so with many of their World Cup stars not fully fit. Thomas Tuchel’s side have a form line of 1-3-1 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 4/5 which is sensational. Les Parisiens going forward finished with over 1.50 xG for in 3/5 which is strong. At the back during this period they conceded on average 0.90 xG which is ok. Away from home it's 2-3-0 in the last 5 Ligue 1 games winning the xG supremacy in 4/5. PSG have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 2/5 which is good. Defensively, they have averaged 1.21 xG against which is ok when playing away from home.



BETTING VERDICT

I will take Over 3.25 goals PSG are very strong going forward and often finish with an xG of over 1.50 whether home or away. Up against Guingamp who conceded 2 last weekend as well as averaging almost 2 xG a game in their last 5 I can see at least 2 away goals here on Saturday. At the other end, PSG are not amazing defensively. They have conceded over a goal a game on average on their travels and Guingamp have finished with over 1.50 xG in 4/5 at home. I like both teams to score with PSG winning so worst case a ½ point loss. I’m hopeful we get that 4th goal and given the numbers I’m happy to side with the overs.



Good Luck