TipResumen

PREVIEW

The higher Ranked player is the underdog in this match and I can see why that would be the case, but I think the prices have shifted to a point where Pablo Carreno Busta can be backed to move through to the Semi Final. Hyeon Chung is most definitely on a path up the World Rankings and he has the potential to be a Grand Slam winner. This season he has made the Australian Open Semi Final and backed that up with a couple of solid runs at Indian Wells and Miami, but the consistency has not quite been there over the last month on the return to the hard courts. Part of the issue has been the recent return from injury for Chung and he has come through his two matches in Winston Salem in tight matches. The numbers during the last month have just not quite reached the overall numbers produced in 2018 on this surface and Chung is holding at less than 80% while his return game has really struggled. You would think he could get back on track against someone like Pablo Carreno Busta whose serve is perhaps one of the weaker ones in the top 50 of the World Rankings. However that is more a perception than a reality with Carreno Busta who has reached the Semi Final at the US Open in 2017 and the same stage in Miami earlier in 2018. Carreno Busta played well in Cincinnati last week too and his 15-6 hard court record in 2018 is a very good one. On the serve the Spaniard is holding almost 85% of his service games which is significantly better than what he has produced in previous years on the hard courts, although I do wonder if it is a level he can maintain. However you can add those numbers to the decent return ones and Carreno Busta has every chance of the upset against an opponent who has not found his best tennis consistently over the last month. The Spaniard has played well this past week but has to lift his game a little more to win a match like this one. I do think it is going to be a close one regardless and it could come down to one or two points in the final set to determine who is able to move through to the Semi Final. With that in mind, there looks to be a real disparity in the odds and I will back the underdog in a two horse race who has played the slightly better tennis on this surface in the last few weeks.



PREDICTION

This looks a much closer match than the odds suggest and I will back Pablo Carreno Busta to come through as the underdog.