TipResumen

CHELSEA

Chelsea defeated Huddersfield Town (0-3) in their Premier League opener at the weekend. The performance and result will please boss Sarri but Saturday’s home opener against Arsenal will be a much stronger test. Maurizio Sarri’s side have a form line of 3-1-1 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 4/5 which is excellent. Going forward Chelsea finished with over 1.50 xG in 2/5 which is ok. At the back during this period they have conceded on average 0.56 xG which is exceptional. At home it's 2-2-1 in the last 5 Premier League games winning the xG supremacy in 4/5. The Blues have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 3/5 which is very good. Defensively, they have averaged 0.78 xG against which is excellent.



ARSENAL

Arsenal were soundly defeated (0-2) in their home opener by Champions Manchester City. Their new coach will want his first win asap having replaced Wenger in the summer, however Chelsea away is not a favourable fixture for the Gunners. Unai Emery’s side have a form line of 2-0-3 winning the expected goals (xG) supremacy in 2/5 which is ok. The Gunners going forward finished with over 1.50 xG for in 3/5 which is strong. At the back during this period they conceded on average 1.46 xG which is awful. Away from home it's 1-0-4 in the last 5 Premier League games winning the xG supremacy in 2/5. Arsenal have finished with over 1.50 xG for in 2/5 which is good. Defensively, they have averaged 1.49 xG against which is poor when playing away from home.



BETTING VERDICT

I will take Chelsea -0.75 AH. I like Chelsea to come through this game against the Gunners with a win. Chelsea appear to be evolving under Sarri a little quicker than Arsenal under Emery. The Blues kept a clean sheet in a dominant display whilst Arsenal struggled throughout in their defeat. The data suggests Chelsea are the better side and with home advantage too I will back them to get the win. Sarri’s side going forward match up well against Arsenal’s flakey defence and should net at least 1 if not 2 goals. At the other end, Arsenal are strong but Chelsea’s defence is equally impressive. Overs appeals but I prefer to take the hosts against the spread.



Good Luck