TipResumen

PREVIEW

This looks a fascinating Second Round match between two players who both are pretty comfortable on the hard courts. Most would assume Karen Khachanov is the better hard court player compared with Pablo Carreno Busta who likely does prefer the clay courts, but the Spaniard has been very good on the surface over the last twelve months. A run to the Semi Final at the US Open may have been seen as an exceptional tournament for Carreno Busta, but he has also reached the Semi Final in Miami earlier this season. His numbers on the hard courts have been markedly better than in 2017 with a much stronger hold percentage and that is important for someone who has always been a better returning player than a server. There has been a slight slip in the break percentage compared with 2017, but Carreno Busta has actually been winning more points against the serve than he was and that has to be encouraging for him. The challenge is facing a big hitting player like Karen Khachanov who can hit through Carreno Busta and who has a serve that may restrict what the latter can do on the return of serve which has been key for him. Overall the Russian has some very strong numbers on the serve, but a deeper look shows he has had his issues since moving from the indoor hard courts to playing outdoors in 2018. Khachanov had some tremendous runs indoors in 2018 and has won a title in Marseille, but the numbers have slipped on the hard courts as the tournaments have moved back outdoors. The Russian is just 3-4 on the hard courts since winning the title in Marseille and his numbers have taken a big step back both on the serve and the return. Twelve months ago Carreno Busta beat Khachanov in the Canadian Masters, albeit in Montreal rather than Toronto, and he has enough to get the better of this match too. Carreno Busta is the slight underdog in this one, but he has really enjoyed playing on the North American hard courts over the last twelve months and I will back the Spaniard to find a way to move through to the Third Round.



PREDICTION

It may be worth backing the underdog in this Second Round match to progress through to the next Round of the ATP Toronto Canadian Masters tournament being played.