TipResumen

OVERVIEW



John Longmire’s side responded very well late in the season as many were tipping this veteran side to be a team that was unlikely to make the finals. The Swans stood up and silence many critics late in the season by securing some massive wins late in the season. The Giants were looking likely to finish in the top 4 but their poor finishing in the last 2 weeks of the season cost them dearly, dropping down to 7th on the ladder and having to travel for the rest of the finals. While the Giants will still be playing in Sydney, they clearly do not play as well in the SCG compared to Spotless Stadium. There is no major player chance for John Longmire apart from recalling well rested Luke Parker and Lance Franklin. Both Parker and Franklin was dropped in round 23 as a precautionary measure. Leon Cameron is prepared to go all out in an all or nothing elimination final game against the Swans by recalling Toby Greene, Deledio, De Boer and Zac Williams. Zac Williams will be playing his first game of the season after going down with an Achilles injury in January. Toby Greene has only featured 7 games this season and is down on average disposals, marks, tackles and goals from last year. While 7 games is probably not a good sample size to rely on, his fitness and sharpness will be highly questionable. Similarly to Greene, Brett Deledio has only played 9 games all season, and only 3 of the games coming after round 6 while Matt De Boer have only played one game since round 17 and 5 games since round 9. While recalling them is a logical choice, Cameron is taking a gamble by making such a shuffle. Neither of them are likely to be in full match sharpness having played so little this season and they are expected to competed in a physical battle against the Swans. George Hewitt have done a splendid job in playing the tagging role and shutting whoever is “hot” in the game. He is likely go to either one of the key Giants player in Kelly, Shield, Ward or Coniglio – whoever is influencing the game. Given his success in shutting them down, the Giants will need to find ways for other players to contribute more and this is something that hasn’t happen often. The Giants have consistently relied on their “hot” players in the game and if the others cant step up, Leon Cameron’s side might be in trouble. Phil Davis is probably one of the best individuals in the league to go one V one against Lance Franklin. In their last meeting in round 22, Buddy kicked 5 goals, only 1 came when Davis was on big Buddy. However, with Heath Shaw out, Davis does not have the “sweeper” in Shaw to command and patrol the spaces which means that Buddy is likely to have more spaces to into.







VERDICT



Keeping Lachie Whitfield from busting from deep will be key in stopping the Giants. The Swans have done a fantastic job in shutting Whitfield in both games this season. His burst along will Zac Williams will be key as the Swans lack the leg speed and they can hurt the veteran Swans. Since serving his suspension, Jeremey Cameron seems to be nowhere near his usual self. I am unsure if that 5 weeks suspension have somehow put Cameron off but his performance in the past few weeks was simply woeful. He was a non-factor in the game against Adelaide, Sydney and Melbourne and the Giants needs him to deliver if there are to have any realistic chance of coming out of this elimination final game. Given the sort of ongoing injuries the Giants have this season, taking so many players to such are crucial match who might be not a 100% fit is a huge gamble in my view. Things could go terribly wrong and they could be down a player or two on rotation before the game finishes and an experience John Longmire led veteran team will know how to exploit such weakness as they did so in round 22. Buddy Franklin has consistently carried the Swans over the line and I believe with Franklin’s last game was the last time both sides met 3 weeks ago, Buddy will be well rested ahead of this game and this should give him the extra bit required to beat Phil Davis on a one V one. There are two main factors that in my view will determine the outcome of the game. One of them would be keeping Franklin quiet and the other being can the Giants have 22 full players for all 4 quarters and keep running and beat the Swans for pace. If they do not have any scratches in the game and if the Giants can somehow shut Franklin, they are in with a real chance. If they cannot use speed to their advantage and allow Franklin to do his usual business at the SCG, my money is on Swans to come up top.