TipResumen

PREVIEW

This tournament may be played on a hard court, but there will be a clay court kind of feel to the match played between Pablo Carreno Busta and Joao Sousa in the Second Round. Both players look to get into the rally and grind down opponents and it should be a fun match for the fans to enjoy. The two players match up similarly with the serve expected to be something their opponents will look to attack, while both Carreno Busta and Sousa should be very comfortable on the ground. Surprisingly the two players have some effective hard court numbers behind the serve which has helped them put more wins on the board than you imagine. To be fair to Carreno Busta he has shown he is very comfortable on the hard courts over the last twelve months and that all began by reaching the US Open Semi Final in 2017. The Spaniard has a strong 17-7 record on the hard courts in 2018 and much of that is down to a very effective 84% hold percentage on the surface. That is a number that is significantly better than what Carreno Busta has been able to produce on the hard courts in previous years and he continues to back that up with a decent return game which has resulted in the wins being strung together. Sousa has to be very happy with his own 80% hold percentage on the hard courts, while he has really surprised me by winning just over 65% of points played on his serve. It helped him beat veteran Marcel Granollers in the First Round without too many issues, but the one area where Carreno Busta has a big edge over Sousa is the break percentage and I feel that makes the difference between them in this Second Round match. Carreno Busta's break percentage is up at 26% compared with Sousa's 19% on the hard courts and having the slightly stronger serving numbers too means the Spaniard is the right favourite. The spread is quite close to where I would have had it because Sousa is capable of taking a set at his best, but even with that in mind I can see Carreno Busta winning at least one set with a double break and that 6-1 or 6-2 set being the difference between a cover or not.



PREDICTION

I will back the US Open Semi Finalist from last year to continue his progress in 2018 with a good looking win in the Second Round.