TipResumen

INTRODUCTION

This is just another tantalising battle in this weekends finals match ups, this one however is a sudden death elimination final courtesy of finishing in the top 8, but outside the top 4. This is 5th v 8th and only separated by points differential.



PENRITH PANTHERS

Penrith had their full strength side back last week and with the addition of Maloney, overcame all the odds to beat Melbourne in Melbourne, something that can be very hard to do. Final score 16-22 with the Panthers running in 5 tries to 2. Maloney certainly made a difference and steadied up the attack allowing other creative players around him to do what they do best. Penrith have had a good season and have come into the finals with a little bit of a rocky road. Last week has been covered above but the week prior the Panthers played the Warriors in New Zealand without Maloney and lost 36-16. 6 tries to 3, the headlines said it was a crushing defeat but it must be tempered with the fact Maloney was absent. The two weeks prior Penrith lost to Newcastle at home, 12-20 and just scrapped home by one point against the Titans, 16-17 the before, so with this mixed form it does create some doubt about the match up here given they lost by 20 to the Warriors just 2 weeks ago. The key players for Penrith are undoubtedly their halves. Maloney and Cleary need to control the tempo and have superb kicking game to keep the Warriors attack away from their 20. Do this and I think they attacking class Penrith have will win. Corey Harawira-Naera is the only addition returning from a concussion.



NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS

The Warriors faithful have waited a long time to reach the finals once more, New Zealand have not made the finals since 2011 and there is a lot of expectation on their shoulders. This clashes with the All Blacks game in NZ and I for one will be watching the Warriors purely because it has been soooo long since they had a chance in the finals. Blake Green returns this week after missing last week’s victory narrow victory over the Canberra Raiders, 20-16. Greens Return will certainly help Johnson, freeing him up from the kicking responsibility and allowing him to run. Shaun can be lethal if he runs but needs the forwards to lay the right platform. NZ Warriors will have little to no chance without the forward pack firing on all cylinders. A lot of that responsibility will fall on forwards who have come in from other clubs, Tohu Harris ex Storm, Adam Blair ex Broncos and Isaac Luke ex Rabbits, all of which have multiple finals appearances. This experience is crucial in the Finals and that is the Warriors biggest issue coming into 2018 as the vast majority have not been there before or a considerable time ago. With Beale out Peta Hiku comes in as centre, Gavet starts and Afoa back to the pine. Mannering and RTS are under injury clouds but will play.



THE BETTING VERDICT

Think back to round 17, where Penrith hosted the Warriors for the first time this season. This was held at Panthers stadium and not ANZ where this finals match is held but the Warriors were absolutely spanked that day losing 36-4. New Zealand did not even score their lone try until the 75th minute and it was one of the low points for the Warriors this season. So the spoils were shared 36-4 victory to the Panthers at home, 36-16 to the Warriors at home. Will the home side victories continue or will the Warriors scare the remaining teams with a victory here away from home where they have done so well this season? Only time will tell but given the Warriors have had a good away season you cannot discount the possibility of either side winning here. Current odds have the home side Penrith as favourites and rightly so, $1.74 to $2.15. The handicap line is 2.5 points and combined points 38.5