TipResumen

OVERVIEW



Both teams have played each other twice this season with a combined of 5 points only separating both wins by either side. Melbourne have played well since losing to Sydney a month ago, picking up huge win in Perth against West Coast and a splendid performance against GWS at the MCG. Chris Scott on the other hand was given an out of jail card after Geelong fell outside the top 8 a month ago and barely made finals thanks to the collapse of Ken Hinkley’s Port Adelaide. Geelong’s form on paper seems very impressive winning by over 200 points combined in their past two games but both wins were against teams with virtually nothing to play for in Fremantle and Goal Coast. Simon Goodwin’s side may be short in experience, but they are definitely not short in talent. I believe that they can match the Geelong in terms of talent in every department. Ablett, Selwood may still have plenty to offer to the Club but are past their peak while there are signs of a slow decline in Dangerfield’s game, possible due to the arrival of Ablett and not being 100% fit. Since his Brownlow Year, Dangerfield’s numbers in Disposals, Tackles, Goals and Marks have all dropped. While some may argue that this is solely due to the arrival of Ablett and sharing the workload with Ablett, I believe Dangerfield does not seem as fit as he was in 2016. His dominance in the Cats line up have dropped so dramatically that Dangerfield is unlikely to finish in the top 5 in Brownlow Votes. Bookmakers have priced him at 41 to 1 making him 10th in the list. With Rhys Stanley in doubt for the game, Mark Blicavs may be called into ruck from defence. This potentially may cause trouble in defence for Geelong as Tom McDonald may find miss match all over the place. Henderson or Taylor may be given the task for McDonald, but I believe McDonald may just too strong and powerful for either Henderson or Taylor.







VERDICT



This is the Demons first final experience in over a decade. Some of these young Demons players were still in primary school when David Neitz was leading the Demons line up. There have been plenty of uncertain up in the air over these young Demons experience in final, but this current Demons squad is one has a bright future ahead of them and possible several future Hall of Framer. Max Gawn has had a fantastic season and should continue to dominate the ruck contest. Gawn should give first use of the ball to his Melbourne midfields which is key in my opinion. If Geelong gets first use, the experience of Selwood, Ablett, Dangerfield and Duncan may make life hard for an inexperience final team. As it is, Rhys Stanley is huge doubt for the game and it will be interesting to see who Chris Scott calls on and if he were to risk Stanley. In all honestly, Stanley is still no match for arguable the best ruckman in the competition. I have some minor concerns over the form of Geelong. Geelong have not played well after the BYE and I believe that records sit at 1-11 in the past 6-7 years. In addition, prior to last week’s BYE, despite two big wins against Suns and Dockers, Geelong were never really challenged. Hence playing their first “competitive” football in almost a month may not be ideal at this stage of the season. Melbourne in my view have a decent change in winning the Flag this season. They may lack the experience that I would like in order to back them but its hard to overlook a side that consist of veterans such as Jordan Lewis and Nathan Jones, current stars in Max Gawn and Dom Tyson and up and coming players such as Clayton Oliver, Angus Brayshaw, Christian Petracca, Alex Neal Bullen and James Harmes. If the game was played at the Cattery, then it would be tough luck for Melbourne and I would unfortunately have back the Cats. However, as the game is at the MCG, I’m just siding on Melbourne, the up and coming team in my view.