TipResumen

MELBOURNE STORM

Melbourne Narrowly missed out on top spot to the Roosters on points differential to the Roosters, and along with the other two sides, Cronulla and South Sydney, end up on equal first on points. They have all had a very good season. For Melbourne to win Cam Smith, Munster and Slater must play very well as their opposition have probably hit top gear with a brilliant performance last week against the Tigers. With 8 tries scored in that match their opposition is primed to rock the Defending premiers. Cam Smith – if he runs with the ball in hand, as he seems to do now at back end of halves the Rabbits will do very well if they can shut that down and stop his ability to create space for the dangerous outside backs. He is crucial for the Storm success here, but lose here and you still get a second chance by virtue of the finals system. Munster is a special player and really is a difficult man to tackle. His fend and uncanny skill has propelled him into the likely standoff for Australia. He is also a player that will run if the opportunity presents itself and can make you pay very quickly. Last round against the Panthers the Storm suffered a defeat, the only defeat in the top 8 in fact. This will give the Rabbits hope, particularly as this game was in Melbourne, just like this one.



SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS

As mentioned above the Rabbits ran in 8 tries against a wests Tigers side that looked like the season was one game too long, never the less, the Rabbits looked very strong and will certainly put up a strong challenge away to the Storm. There will not likely be any arguments when I say these are the two best hookers in the game going head to head in this one and I am sure Smith as competitive as he is will be taking this personally. This means one hell of match is about unfold in front of your eyes. Although Smith and Cook have contrasting styles the Guile and slight of hand of Smith and the Speed and heads up play of Cook can be lethal in the right circumstances. For Cook to succeed his forwards have to dominate and get front foot ball. This will allow Cook to run and if he does, look out Melbourne. Defence will be the question mark on the Rabbits who have conceded some big points leading up to last weeks commanding victory. The Raiders put 24 on them, the Broncos put on 38, while the Roosters toughed out 18 in the 3 losses the weeks prior. Needless to say if a weak defensive unit turns up from the Rabbits they will definitely struggle. Lastly the Forwards and notably the Burgess Brothers are the big driver for Souths and without this strength up the middle again the Storm will likely over power them.



THE BETTING VERDICT

With a very different outing last week where Melbourne managed just two tries compared to the Rabbits eight, you do wonder how this match will end up? You have to temper last week’s loss by Melbourne with the fact that they had some big names missing, Munster, Slater, Vunivalu to name a few so with players now back in their regular positions, surely the Storm are a much stronger side than last week. Current odds have the Storm Favs, $1.80 to $2.05, handicap margin 1.5 points and combined points 38.5 All the finals games are close, really close, and nearly every game this weekend could go either way so be conservative with where you put your cash over the four games. For me, If I have to pick a winner in each I would go Rabbits, Panthers, Sharks and Broncos. As I am leaning just towards the Rabbits here, purely on the back of their forward pack, the H2H odds of $2.05 are too good to turn down. If this is not your thing or you favour the Storm, consider the combined points option and go under, this will be tight and likely to be low scoring.